The property price index fell slightly, everyone observes the implementation of the policy report
After breaking a record high, property prices fell slightly on a monthly basis. The Evaluation Department announced yesterday that it revised upwards the July private property price index to 397.7 points, a record high. The latest August was 397.1 points, down 0.15% month-on-month, which is the first time this year’s decline after seven consecutive months of rising. . It is worth noting that the rent index rose for the seventh consecutive month in August, and there has been a rare phenomenon of rising rents and falling property prices in recent years. According to industry analysis, the continuous improvement of Hong Kong's economy and the "returning" of students from the Mainland to rent houses support rising rents, while the market outlook will wait and see the supply measures in the new policy address. reporter Yan Lunle
The Evaluation Department announced yesterday that the rent index for August was reported at 182.2 points, a month-on-month increase of 1.56% and a year-on-year increase of 0.55%. In contrast, the August property price index was last reported at 397.1 points, down 0.15% month-on-month. It should be noted that this is the first time this year that the increase in rents has exceeded property prices. This phenomenon is worthy of attention. However, looking back at the first eight months of this year, the rent of private buildings increased by nearly 3.2%, compared with the cumulative increase of 4.53% in the property price index. The overall increase is still relatively small.
Rental households increased by 235,000 in ten years
According to the Census and Statistics Department earlier, the latest Hong Kong labor force statistics (that is, provisional figures from June to August 2021), the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped from 5.0% from May to July 2021 to June 2021. The underemployment rate also fell from 2.4% from May to July 2021 to 2.2% from June to August 2021. The continuous improvement of the economic environment, coupled with the peak summer rental season, has resulted in an increase of a number of mainland student tenants. The market believes that as the economy improves, rents will continue to "chase backward".
It is worth noting that the rents of small and medium-sized units have increased more. The rent index in August was 186.3 points, up 1.58% month-on-month; while for large-scale units, it was 146.3 points, up 1.04% month-on-month.
Looking at the number of households in Hong Kong in February this year, 1.23 million households are at a historical high, an increase of 235,300 from the 995,600 households in the first quarter of 2011, which is the first quarter of ten years ago, reflecting that more families cannot afford to buy flats and need to rent. building. Although the increase in rents reflects the improvement in market conditions, the salary package in Hong Kong has not improved. Last year, many companies even experienced salary freezes or layoffs. The increase in rents at this time meant that many tenants would be burdened.
High rent-to-transaction ratio increases in the first 8 months
According to information from Midland Realty, based on the rental cases facilitated by the bank, the highest rate in the first eight months of this year is the monthly rent of 15,000 yuan or less, accounting for about 39%, but a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. As for the increase in the rate of cases where the monthly rent exceeds RMB 15,000 to RMB 20,000, it recorded 27.9% in the first eight months of this year, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from 26.4% in the same period last year. Reflecting the rising rents, the monthly rents that citizens need to pay have an upward trend.
Different from the continuous increase in the rent index, the property price index, which had previously increased more, performed poorly in August. The Bureau of Valuation and Valuation announced that the July price index was revised upwards to 397.7 points, which means that property prices have reached a record high, an increase of 0.2% from the last historical high of 396.9 points in May 2019. However, the index reported 397.1 points in August, down 0.15% from July, ending its 7-month continuous rise, while still rising 0.05% compared to the previous historical record in May 2019.
The new political and economic situation has become prudent when entering the market
Chen Haichao, head of Ricacorp's real estate research department, pointed out that property prices have continued to rise steadily this year, but failed to rise again after reaching a new high. He believes that the reasons include the repeated decline in stock market performance in recent months and the central government's rectification of various industry sectors in the Mainland. There are rumors that the "rules of the game" in the Hong Kong property market will change, and buyers will be wary of entering the market.
In addition, he said that the fifth policy address of the Chief Executive will be issued on October 6. The market is watching the land and property market policies. Therefore, he believes that after the property prices hit new highs, they may not be able to go up again. It is expected in September and October. In the next two months, property prices will remain high and consolidate repeatedly. However, it is believed that when the housing policy measures in the policy address are specifically announced, the market will have a clearer direction and property prices will continue to rise reliably and steadily.
