The property market this year has been affected by multiple negative factors such as repeated epidemics, interest rate hike cycles, and unstable external market conditions. Property prices have fallen from their highs at the beginning of the year, and have fallen by nearly 15% so far, the largest drop since 2000. Ma Taiyang, CEO of Hong Kong Real Estate, believes that unless the Mainland and Hong Kong resume normal customs clearance as soon as possible, property prices will still be in the adjustment stage at the beginning of next year. It is expected that the interest rate hike cycle will peak in the first half of next year at the earliest, and the "visibility" of the property market will show a big improvement Breakthrough, property prices are expected to bottom out and rebound by 5% next year.
28% of respondents are optimistic about the market outlook
Ma Taiyang pointed out that although the SAR government canceled the "yellow code" and "safety travel" arrangements for people coming to Hong Kong at the end of this year, and then loosened the anti-epidemic measures, but due to the decline in the property market in Hong Kong and the economic recovery will take time, it is difficult to introduce relevant measures immediately In order to recover the disadvantages of the market, and Hong Kong followed the United States to start the interest rate hike cycle, the Bank of Hong Kong raised the prime interest rate (P mortgage) several times, which hindered the confidence of buyers to enter the market, and the transaction volume repeatedly hit new lows. Unless the society returns to normal quickly, and the mainland and Hong Kong resume normal customs clearance as soon as possible, it is expected to boost the economy and stabilize the property market.
According to Wang Pindi, Director of the Research Department of Hong Kong Real Estate, according to the survey conducted by Hong Kong Real Estate from the end of November to the beginning of December, nearly 25% of the respondents believe that the trend of interest rates has become the most influential factor in entering the market, setting a record high since the second quarter of 2016. According to the survey, more than 50% of the respondents are still pessimistic about the market outlook, expecting property prices to continue to fall in the next 12 months, but this ratio has fallen by 9.1 percentage points from the record high of more than 60% last quarter; Citizens with a good market outlook rebounded from the low of less than 20% in the previous quarter to about 28.4%. About 22.7% of the respondents believed that property prices in Hong Kong would rise by 5% in the next 12 months, reflecting that the public's views on property prices next year are not unanimously pessimistic.
Shi Yongqing: Now is not a good time to enter the market
Shi Yongqing, founder of Centaline Group, said that it is uncertain whether the current property market is at the bottom, but he does not think it is the best time to enter the market. Although there has been good news in the market recently, including the slowdown in U.S. interest rate hikes and the rationalization of the epidemic policy, which has brought support to the property market, it does not mean that there will be an actual turn. Factors considered include that citizens usually enter the market when the property market is rising to make money. Many potential young buyers choose to immigrate, bringing new challenges to the mid- to long-term property market.
