2024-05-10 28Hse Editor
The land price does not slow down and the development bureau: the supply must continue to be stable
The Development Bureau announced yesterday the land sale plan for the fourth quarter of this fiscal year (January to March 2023). Only one piece of official residential land in Tsuen Wan will be launched, providing 490 units, a sharp drop of more than 80% quarter-on-quarter. Ning Hanhao, director of the Development Bureau, said yesterday that if the fourth fiscal quarter is combined with 8 private redevelopment projects, a total of 3,120 units can be provided, bringing the total supply of this fiscal year to 16,070 units, which has exceeded the fiscal year supply target of 12,900 units by about 25%. She also pointed out that the government will not slow down the promotion of land due to the recent drop in land prices, and must maintain a stable supply of land to achieve policy goals. ◆reporter Li Zitian
Ning Hanhao said at a press conference yesterday that in the first three quarters of this fiscal year, the private housing land supply from different sources can be integrated to build 12,950 units, which has exceeded the annual supply target of 12,900 units. In the fourth fiscal quarter, together with 8 private development projects that can complete the required land lease modification within the quarter (these 8 projects have a total of 2,630 units), the private housing land supply is expected to total about 3,120 units. Together with the supply in the first three quarters, this fiscal year comes from The land supply from different sources is expected to total 16,070 units, about 25% more than this year's private housing supply target of 12,900 units.
In the next quarter, 1 homestead involving 490 units will be launched
She added that the above figures do not fully reflect the supply from private development projects that do not require land lease amendments in the third and fourth quarters. Such figures are generally available later, and the bureau will make a summary before the end of this fiscal year .
Regarding the fact that the government will only release one piece of official residential land in the next quarter, involving only 490 units; and the price of a piece of residential land in Kai Tak recently approved by the government, the transaction price is more than 20% lower than the lower limit of market expectations. , the results of recent land sales by the government have not been satisfactory, so it may be more conservative to promote only one residential land in Tsuen Wan. Generally, land in this area is more popular with developers and buyers. His valuation of the residential land in Tsuen Wan ranges from 1.1 billion to 1.4 billion.
Land grants reasonably reflect market prices
Ning Hanhao also responded to the recent drop in land prices yesterday. She said that the government has a reserve price for each piece of land, and the reserve price is a reasonable estimate by the professional appraisers of the Lands Department based on the current economy. Since the government has successfully approved it, it means that the price is reasonable reflect market prices. She also pointed out that when the economic environment is the best, the land price income of the same piece of land will be higher. If the land is only promoted when the economic environment is good, the government’s policy goal of continuous and stable land supply will not be achieved.
The market originally estimated that the focus of residential projects in the next quarter will be the MTR Tung Chung East Station Phase 1 site, which is expected to provide about 1,900 units. When asked why the Tung Chung East Station residential land was not mentioned in this land sale plan, Ning Hanhao explained that the relevant project is to support the development of the railway property for the extension of the Tung Chung Line, and the Transport and Logistics Bureau is discussing the relevant agreement with the MTR. The Development Bureau will review the launch of the derived railway residential project and prepare land documents after the relevant parties complete the agreement.
There are nearly 5,000 suppliers for land sales
Ye Wenqi, director of land and housing research at the United Hong Kong Fund, believes that since the supply of private housing land in the first three quarters of this fiscal year has reached the standard, the launch of official land will be slowed down in the next quarter, and efforts will be made in the next fiscal year. Ye Wenqi continued to point out that there are still many large-scale residential lands in Kai Tak, Tsuen Wan and Tuen Mun on the land sales list until next year, which can be used to build nearly 5,000 units. Together with the First Railway Bureau and private reconstruction and land premium projects, it is believed that the next fiscal year will also be expected to exceed the standard.
Liu Jiahui, chief analyst of Midland Realty, pointed out that the government’s total land supply of 16,070 units in this fiscal year exceeded the standard by 25%. In fact, it is still about 15% lower than the previous fiscal year’s 18,930 units year-on-year, and it is also less than the past 20,000 units per year. . However, he believes that as the government actively develops the "Northern Metropolitan Area", he believes that the shortage of land supply will improve in the future, but it will take time to convert the land into houses. The number of domestic completions showed a steady development.
In addition, according to the forecast for the supply of mature land in the next ten years announced by the government earlier, the overall supply of private residential land in the future will show an upward trend. However, Ye Wenqi expects that because the relevant estimates have included factors that greatly shorten the land creation process, such as shortening the time for large-scale development projects from 13 years to 7 years, he hopes that the bill that the government submitted to the Legislative Council to streamline the development process will be able to Passed as soon as possible, so that the "granary effect" of supply can be realized as soon as possible.
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