Slaves living downstairs during the epidemic cut down on clothing, food and shelter

Survey: 70% of adults are concerned about the property market next year, 42% would rather do fixed deposits

The epidemic and interest rate hikes have brought severe challenges to the lives of Hong Kong people. Apart from inflation, the biggest problem facing property owners is the increase in mortgage payments. According to the home purchase survey released by Meridian Mortgage Referral yesterday, among the respondents with residential mortgages, more than 75% of the respondents have increased the pressure on housing mortgage due to interest rate hikes. But how easy is it to offset the pressure to raise interest rates? Most of them can only cut down on food and clothing (33.9%) to save interest expenses, and the rest include mortgage deposit-linked accounts and remortgage to earn cash rebates, etc., reflecting the compulsion of small citizens in the "high-interest life". ◆reporter Li Zitian

Cao Deming, the chief vice president of Meridian Mortgage Referral, said yesterday that 909 respondents were interviewed online this year, and more than 85% (86.4%) of the respondents believed that if the interest rate hike continues, they will remain cautious in entering the market or investing in the next year . Six-and-a-half percent (65%) of the property buyers plan for the coming year will be "wait and see or wait and see what happens", followed by "considering buying a property" accounting for 15.4%, and "considering changing flats" accounting for 12.4%. On the other hand, more than 30% (31.4%) believe that the continuous rise in interest rates will most affect the development of the real estate market in the coming year.

Tang Wenliang: I have never seen regular development

Under the serial interest rate hikes in the United States, major banks have launched high-interest time deposits to grab funds, and the returns are quite impressive, even more attractive than the returns of buying properties and collecting rent. Small citizens want to preserve the value of their assets. It seems that time deposits are the most important right now The most sensible choice. However, Tang Wenliang, a senior investor, recently wrote an article pointing out that "from the small to the big, no one has seen regular prosperity", also known as "everyone has his own ambitions, and everyone has different ways of doing things, there is no right or wrong", which seems to imply that regular Not the best investment choice.

However, in this home buying survey, more than 40% (42.3%) of the citizens who are waiting to see what happens and have no plans to buy a home will put their money in fixed deposits, followed by "save first without making any investment" accounting for 23.4%. Investing funds in the stock market” accounted for 22.7%. As for the citizens who are considering selling their properties, nearly 40% (38%) believe that the room for future property price increases is limited, followed by "immigrants and selling properties" accounting for 22%, "changing properties" and "turning to investment with higher returns" are each Accounted for 18%.

Most hope the government will relax the property tax

Cao Deming pointed out that looking forward to 2023, nearly 30% (27.4%) of the respondents think that property prices will fall by 10% to 20%, 25.6% think that property prices will fall by 5% to 10%, and some think that property prices will fall by more than 30%. 4.5%, a total of nearly 70% of the respondents are bearish on the property market in the coming year. Another 25% (25.1%) of the respondents believed that the trend of property prices in the coming year would be relatively stable and maintain a fluctuation range of 5%, and only about 5.2% of the respondents believed that property prices would increase by 5% or more.

In addition, more than 75% (75.8%) believe that if the property market continues to decline, the government should further "reduce the heat" to stimulate the transaction and development of the property market, and nearly 40% (39.6%) expected the government to relax the property tax, and the relaxation of the upper limit of high-value mortgage property prices and the downward pressure test requirements each accounted for 25%.

Meridian: interest rates may peak next year

The number of existing mortgages in the first 11 months of this year was 77,450, and the number of uncompleted mortgages in the first 11 months was 3,895. Cao Deming expects the number of existing buildings and uncompleted properties to reach 82,450 and 4,145 for the whole year, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6% and 30.6%. Cao said that after the relaxation of the epidemic prevention policy, the economy will further improve next year, and factors such as the return to normal customs clearance will stimulate the property market, which will help developers to accelerate the pace of launch. Positive growth, the annual increase is expected to be about 10% year-on-year to 91,000 and 4,600 levels.

Cao Deming continued to point out that looking forward to 2023, the market expects the pace of interest rate hikes to slow down as Fed officials "released doves" earlier. The bank expects the US federal funds rate to rise to 5.5%. It is estimated that the pace of interest rate hikes in the United States will be suspended after several interest rate discussions in the future. He believes that if Hong Kong's economy can return to normal, property prices may bottom out in the first half of next year.