2024-05-14 28Hse Editor
The government will announce the land sale plan for the next fiscal quarter (January to March 2022) within a few days. As the land supply for private homes in the first three fiscal quarters of this fiscal year will still reach 12,830 units after deducting the stale Tung Chung land. The target of 12,900 units owes only 70 units, so there should be no difficulty in reaching the target. However, in the first three fiscal quarters, 70% of the land supply came from private redevelopment and development projects, and only 10% of official land. The surveyor pointed out that the government had very few "ammunition" in land reserves. According to a "long-term housing policy" plan, the average annual private housing shortage will reach 4,000 units in the next ten years, supporting the stabilization of high property prices. At present, we can only hope that the government will help the people and the people. The Hong Kong government will be more efficient in finding land next year. At the same time, given the blueprint of the "Northern Metropolis", the development density of the New Territories will be appropriately increased. reporter Yan Lunle
After three quarters of this fiscal year, the government had previously revealed that the land supply for private residences already launched could provide 14,430 units. However, after the MTR Tung Chung Traction Power Distribution Station project passed the bid in November, the first three quarters of supply were deducted after deducting the involved 1,600 units. The volume fell back to 12,830 units, not far from the annual supply target of 12,900 units. Moreover, the URA has earlier announced the launch of the Hung Fuk Street, Kai Ming Street and Wing Kwong Street projects in To Kwa Wan, involving 900 units, and has closed its intention. It is estimated that the tender for the next fiscal quarter will increase the supply of 13,730 units this fiscal year. Reach the target "early" again.
The next season is expected to only push the market to build the Tuguawan project
However, a careful analysis of the government's supply ratio for this fiscal year shows that there were only 1,390 official land units, which temporarily only accounted for about 10.8% of the supply in the first three fiscal quarters. On the other hand, private development and redevelopment projects amounted to 9,160 units, accounting for 71.4%. As for the railway project this year, there is a rare failure to make money. The 3 parcels of land announced at the beginning of the year totaled 4,050 units. After the Tung Chung land was finally released, there was no new news about the MTR project. It is expected that only the Pak Shing Kok Ventilation Building (550 units) in Tseung Kwan O is still expected Tender in the next fiscal quarter.
At present, there are still 9 parcels of land stored in the land sales surface, which can supply 4,610 units, of which 6 parcels in the New Territories, 3 parcels on Hong Kong Island, and no supply in Kowloon. The two largest plots of land are located in Tuen Mun, namely Castle Peak Road (So Kwun Wat Section) in Area 48, Tuen Mun, and Castle Peak Road (Tai Lam Section) in Tuen Mun, each with a buildable floor area of over one million square feet. Since the annual land supply has reached the standard, it is estimated that the government will only tokenize a small amount of land for sale from this batch of land, and most of the official land, including the two giants in Tuen Mun, will be postponed to the next financial year.
There will be a gap of 4,000 private homes every year in the next ten years
Zhang Qiaochu, managing director of Hongliang Consulting and Evaluation, said that the government's annual supply is close to reaching the target, and it is believed that there will not be much supply in the next fiscal quarter. He looks forward to a certain increase in land prices next year. Among them, the "Northern Metropolitan Area" ("Northern Metropolis") has the development concept of the Greater Bay Area. From the perspective of land price trends this year, developers have confidence in the development of the region and predict that land prices will continue to rise next year. , There are two to three percent, or even double the rate of increase. In fact, the newThe price per square foot has dropped to 21,000 yuan, and the Tin Shui Wai project has also reached 16,000 yuan per square foot, which is close to the urban property prices.
Liao Weiqiang, president of Ricacorp Real Estate, also believes that the property market is still "supply in short supply" and property prices are unlikely to fall in the next few years. The Beidu District is a blueprint for long-term planning, and it is difficult to release reclaimed land to build houses in the short term. The new "Long Term Housing Strategy" annual progress report shows that the total housing supply will remain at 430,000 units in the next ten years, and the ratio of public-private housing will remain at 73. An average annual supply of less than 13,000 units of primary and private homes is not enough to cope with the recent 8 The annual average annual absorption is about 17,000 units, which means that there is a gap of 4,000 units per year in private homes.
Zhang Shengdian, visiting associate professor of the Department of Real Estate and Construction of the University of Hong Kong, said that the government holds a small number of official land and believes that next year's supply will still depend on the URA, the MTR, and private development projects. As the basic factors of the shortage of land supply have not changed, it is believed that the price of land will be stable next year, and the price of land in the "Northern Capital District" has already reflected the future potential this year. It is believed that the relevant land price will be rampant next year.
Proposal to appropriately increase the development density of the New Territories
However, as the political environment stabilizes, Zhang Shengdian believes that the government will become more efficient in governance. It is expected that the government will be more determined to implement some measures to solve the land shortage than before. Therefore, policy factors "cannot be underestimated or ignored." Its trend may influence the trend of land prices and property prices next year. In addition, the market also needs to pay attention to the customs clearance situation and the impact of interest rate hikes in the United States.
Li Jianhui, the managing director of Centaline Surveyors, said that he hopes to appropriately increase the development density/plot ratio of residential land in the New Territories or re-plan with the cooperation of the "North Capital District" development blueprint and the development of new transportation infrastructure. The market should also pay attention to the approaching change of the government, and special attention should be paid to ensure that the existing housing and land policies are implemented consistently, and that the next government will continue to achieve continuity.
Like
