2024-05-13 28Hse Editor
Stocks continue to fall, increase suffocation suffocates purchase desire
The Hong Kong stock market continued to fall, but at this time, it hit the tide of new supply, which made the pressure on developers to push the market increasing day by day. According to the latest Housing Bureau data, the inventory of existing first-hand properties has risen to a more than 15-year high of 14,700 units in the third quarter. According to the information of the Lands Department, there are currently more than 30,000 new properties for sale and unsold unsold properties that have been approved for sale. In other words, there are as many as 45,000 units in the market lined up for sale, which is estimated to be a new high in recent years. In the face of a large amount of potential supply, it is expected that in the next few months, even in the face of a falling market, developers will still actively push to "reduce pounds", but whether they can successfully buy goods will test their pricing strategies. ◆reporter Yan Lunle
Under the influence of the epidemic, the sales progress of first-hand and new projects this year can be described as experiencing ups and downs like a "roller coaster". At the beginning of the year, under the influence of the fifth wave of the epidemic, the new market was almost completely frozen. In February and March, it fell to just over 100 transactions. It was only after the government relaxed social distancing measures in April that the market was able to "relax". From April to June, the average monthly transaction volume of new first-hand properties was over 1,000, and the property market experienced a short-lived "little spring".
The second season of Xiaoyangchun is gone in a blink of an eye
However, since July, the property market has entered a more obvious downward trajectory due to the continuous and aggressive interest rate hikes in the United States. The sales of new properties fell to 921 that month, a decrease of 30% month-on-month. Seeing this, the developers also changed their minds. In August, two large-scale new projects in the New Territories were sold at prices 10-20% lower than the second-hand prices in the same area, hoping to maintain the heat of the property market. However, this backfired. The "hot sales" were limited to new properties in the New Territories with a finer silver code, while those in the urban area or those with a larger silver code were "sluggish", which is a stark contrast.
By September, the rate of interest rate hikes in the United States had not slowed down, and banks in Hong Kong had also announced interest rate hikes. The sales of new projects were hit even more obviously, even if the developers pushed the market in a "toothpaste" style, and each time they announced that a small amount of this round would be released. However, from the monthly transaction data, it can be found that only 605 transactions and about 346 transactions were recorded in September and October, and the first-hand sales are getting worse.
This year's first hand or the quietest in 9 years
Under the double blow of the epidemic and interest rate hikes, the first-hand transaction volume this year was only about 8,700 units as of October, which is far from the average annual first-hand registration volume of 17,000 units in the past five years. According to the current market conditions, the possibility of recording a large number of new transactions in November and December is not high. Looking through the data, the last low first-hand transaction volume occurred in 2013, when the annual registration volume was only 9,726. The market estimates that this year may hit a new low in the nine years after 2013.
Just as developers face a falling market and try to stimulate the public's desire to enter the market, they have to face the surge of new supply at the same time. According to data released by the Housing Bureau last week, the inventory of existing first-hand properties has risen to a more than 15-year high of 14,700 units in the third quarter. At the same time, data from the Lands Department also showed that as of September, there were as many as 20,885 uncompleted new properties pending for sale. together withThis year, sales of properties have been approved, but due to the impact of the epidemic and market conditions, there are about 9,500 units that have not been released yet. The supply sources for these three new properties total as many as 45,000 units, which is a new high in recent years.
It is worth noting that it turns out that the number of new units pending approval for 10 months this year has reached the level of over 20,000 units, which is the first time in more than 20 years. Looking at the data of the Lands Department, the last supply peak was in 2002, when it was above 20,000 units for 5 consecutive months from March to July, and there was no single-month high in the 18 years from 2003 to 2021. With more than 20,000 units pending for sale, it is conceivable that there will be a large supply of new properties this year.
For the time being, it tends to increase discounts and compete for customers
The "new property army" has arrived, but the public's desire to enter the market has generally declined due to the increase in interest rates, and property prices have continued to fall. In the event of a new supply tide, developers are under great pressure to launch. However, no one wants the profits from selling properties to be damaged, so at present, low-priced projects still only appear in new properties in the New Territories, and many developers still tend to attract customers with discounts. In the future, unless developers are willing to adjust prices, the competition will only increase as the backlog of new properties in the market increases.
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