2024-05-03 28Hse Editor
11.48% drop in 13 months, market participants hope that the financial plan will be "less spicy"
The property price decline continues to expand! The Department of Valuation and Estimation announced yesterday that the latest housing price index for October has fallen by more than 2% on a monthly basis for three consecutive months, and the latest decline is as high as 2.41%, the largest monthly decline in the past four years. It is worth noting that property prices have fallen by about 11.48% in the past 13 months from the historical high of 398.1 points in September last year, which is the longest period of decline since SARS in 2002 and 2003. Today’s property price index has gone back in time and returned to the level at the end of 2017 nearly five years ago. It is expected that the property price index will continue to decline in November and December, and the decline in property prices in the fourth quarter may expand to 6.75%. The decline will be close to 15%, or the largest year-on-year decline in 22 years after falling 14.5% in 2000. Market participants expect that the next spring budget will have measures to "reduce the spiciness" in the property market. ◆reporter Yan Lunle
The Department of Ratings and Ratings announced yesterday that the private residential price index for October was at 352.4 points, a drop of 2.41% from September's 361.1 points. 4 years) largest monthly decline. In the first 10 months of this year, property prices have fallen by 10.54%. Compared with the historical high of 398.1 points in September last year, they have fallen by 11.48%. The decline in rent was much smaller. The rent index in October reported 179.5 points, a slight increase of about 0.28% month-on-month, and the cumulative rent in the first 10 months fell by 1.75%.
Last month fell 2.4%, the largest in nearly 4 years
Among various types of units, small and medium-sized units (types A, B, and C) experienced a relatively large decline. The latest October property price index was at 354.2 points, down 2.5% month-on-month and 11.12% year-on-year. Among them, Class A small units with a usable area of less than 430 square feet, and Class B medium-sized units with a salable area of 431 square feet to 752 square feet, fell by 2.41% and 2.64% month-on-month, which is quite alarming. Class C units ranging from 753 square feet to 1,075 square feet fell 1.58% month-on-month. As for the large units (classes D and E), they reported 306.7 points in October, down 1% month-on-month and down 8.96% year-on-year.
Chen Haichao, Director of Ricage Real Estate Research Department, said that the haze of interest rate hikes is still lingering, and the epidemic has not subsided repeatedly. The negative factors in the market have overwhelmed the good news. Property prices have fallen by more than 2% on a monthly basis for three consecutive months, and property prices are expected to continue Looking for the bottom, the cumulative decline for the whole year may reach 15%. Checking the data, the last time the year-on-year decline was about 1.5% was in 2000. The Asian financial turmoil and the explosion of technology and Internet stocks in that year caused the property price index of the Department of Compensation and Estimation to fall for 5 consecutive years. By 2003, SARS Then return to the ascending track.
In addition, this time is also the longest decline in Hong Kong’s property market after SARS in 2003. Calculated from the peak of the property market in September last year, property prices have fallen for 13 months. 9 during the Sino-US trade war and the amendment turmoilEvery month, the decline cycle is long, second only to the 19-month decline experienced during the SARS period from 2002 to 2003.
The impact of raising interest rates by 0.25% has not yet been reflected
Chen Haichao pointed out that the property price index of the Department of Difference and Estimation in October has fallen to a new low of 59 months (that is, nearly 5 years) since December 2017. It is worth noting that the October index mainly reflects the actual market conditions from mid-September to early October. At that time, the United States continued to raise interest rates sharply, and Hong Kong also raised interest rates by 0.125% for the first time in four years. Homeowners acted cautiously, and their desire to enter the market was hindered, resulting in a further decline in property prices.
Until the end of October, the policy report did not have any measures to reduce the heat, and in early November, the United States raised interest rates again by 0.75%, and Hong Kong also raised interest rates by 0.25%, which further affected the property market. Therefore, it is expected that the property price index for November will be released next time. There is a chance to record another similar 2.5% decline, and the decline will not stop.
Short-term lack of good news as the epidemic in the Mainland heats up
Looking forward to December, seeing that the epidemic situation in Hong Kong and the Mainland has recently intensified, it is believed that there is still no hope of returning to normal customs clearance in the short term. It is difficult to activate the property market only by local internal circulation. It is expected that property prices will remain under pressure in December. Property prices in the fourth quarter The decline may extend to 6.75%. As for the first quarter of next year, property prices are expected to continue to be under pressure due to lackluster economic performance and the off-season before and after the traditional Lunar New Year. If the cumulative decline reaches nearly 20%, he hopes that the budget in late February next year will adjust the property market’s aggressive measures.
Director of Knight Frank and Head of Greater China Research and Consulting Department Wang Zhaoqi also pointed out that due to the lack of good news in the market and the rapid deterioration of the local and global economic outlook, the overall market sentiment is weak. It is expected that the official index performance will continue to bottom out in the short term. The decline in the official property price index for the whole year will expand to 15%, and property prices and transaction volume will still hover at low levels in the first quarter of next year.
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