2024-04-22 28Hse Editor
The Hong Kong bank has raised interest rates for the first time in nearly 4 years. Liu Jianheng, a senior economist at Standard Chartered Hong Kong Greater China, said yesterday that Hong Kong banks have finally raised the prime interest rate after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates many times. (P), this approach is in line with market expectations, which means that Hong Kong has officially entered a cycle of interest rate hikes, and he also expects to not rule out a total increase of 50% in Hong Kong interest rates this year.
Liu Jianheng further explained that since the Federal Reserve has a great chance of continuing to raise interest rates in the future, it may still raise interest rates twice by the end of the year. The banks in Hong Kong may not only raise the prime interest rate once this year. Large banks and small banks face different factors. The pressure on capital costs is also different. Banks do not need to raise interest rates in one step at present. Therefore, most banks will increase the interest rate by 0.125% this time to test the market water temperature. It is a more prudent approach to make a decision in November and December. . He also expects that the United States will still raise interest rates by 0.75% in November, and in December, depending on the inflation data, decide to raise interest rates by 0.5% or 0.75%.
Industry: Add P slightly to "test the water temperature"
E Zhihuan, chief economist of BOC Hong Kong, pointed out that the Hong Kong dollar interest rate has also responded to the rapid and substantial interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. 2.59%, a new high since the beginning of 2020. During this period, the aggregate balance of the Hong Kong banking system fell to the current 125 billion yuan, increasing the pressure on Hong Kong interest rate hikes. Therefore, the Hong Kong banking industry is under pressure to raise interest rates in the short term. Given that the liquidity of Hong Kong's banking system is still abundant, the increase in Hong Kong interest rates lags behind US interest rates. In the future, the further adjustment of the Hong Kong dollar interest rate will not only refer to the speed and magnitude of interest rate hikes in the United States, but also depends on the flow of funds in Hong Kong and changes in the liquidity of the banking system.
Zhuang Jinhui, CEO of Star Valley Mortgage Referral, believes that the increase of P by local banks this time is slightly smaller than expected.
He also pointed out that the bank's capital cost is linked to the one-month interbank offered rate (HIBOR), which has now risen to 2.6%. Currently, the actual mortgage interest rate is generally only 2.75%, but the profit of real estate mortgages has been significantly affected. Therefore, banks inevitably need to pass Increase P to ease pressure on mortgage spreads. In addition, the 3-month and 1-year HIBOR has risen to 3.18% and 4.17% respectively, which reflects the market's expectation that the future interest rate will rise above 4%, and the United States predicts that interest rates will continue to rise in the future. The pressure on banks' capital costs will continue to rise in the future. will increase, so I believe that P has the opportunity to be increased more than once.
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