2025-05-09 28Hse Editor
Omicron may fall by another 3% in the first quarter of the Chinese New Year sluggish market
The Rating and Valuation Department announced yesterday that the official property price index in Hong Kong last month stood at 392.5 points, down 0.28% from the 393.6 points in November last year, falling for three consecutive months and hitting the lowest level since April last year. The month's all-time high was down 1.41%. However, for the whole year of last year, property prices still increased by 3.32%, which is the 13th consecutive year of increase since 2009, and the cumulative increase in 13 years is as high as 2.75 times. Looking forward to the first quarter of this year, due to the novel coronavirus Omicron virus and the impact of the lunar New Year's sluggish market, the industry estimates that property prices will continue to be under pressure in the first quarter, and may fall by another 2% to 3%.
◆reporter Yan Lunle
Chen Haichao, head of Ricago Real Estate Research, said that in December 2021, the property price index of the Differential Appraisal Department fell for three consecutive months, mainly reflecting the continuous decline of the stock market in the fourth quarter, and the first release in late November that the United States plans to collect water and raise interest rates. Expected, and the mutant virus Omicron began to appear in Europe and the United States, offsetting the expectation that customs clearance between Hong Kong and the mainland would be imminent at that time, causing repeated pressure on property prices. In addition, Hong Kong's private residential rental index also fell for 3 consecutive months in December, to 182.5 points, a slight decrease of 0.05% month-on-month and an increase of about 3.34% year-on-year.
The rental index also fell for 3 months in a row
Given that Omicron appeared in Hong Kong in mid-to-late December last year and became more and more severe, and broke out in the community in early January, the Hong Kong government once again tightened the restrictions on gatherings, so it is believed that the next January property price index will continue to be under pressure. , the decline is expected to expand to about 0.8%. Seeing that the daily number of confirmed cases in the past week has exceeded 100, coupled with the impact of the lunar New Year holiday, it is expected that the property price index will further record a decline of about 1% in February.
Looking forward to the overall market situation in 2022, Chen Haichao believes that the property market will be under pressure in the first quarter, and property prices will have the opportunity to adjust downward by 2% to 3%. However, Omicron is not very lethal. As long as the epidemic situation eases, it is expected that after the market adjusts, the purchasing power will gradually return after the Lunar New Year, driving the volume and price of the property market to rebound, and it can resume its upward trajectory in the second quarter. Moreover, if the customs clearance can be achieved at a later time, it is expected that the market outlook will be more explosive. He said that in 2022, property prices are still expected to rise by 5% to 10%, and property prices are still optimistic throughout the year, given the fundamental factors, including the continued shortage of supply, continued user demand, and the pace of interest rate hikes in Hong Kong will be slower and lower than in the United States. Look up.
Low-level luxury homes are more volatile
Wang Zhaoqi, director of Knight Frank and head of research and consulting in Greater China, said that based on the accumulated experience in Hong Kong and other markets around the world in the past two years, it is expected that the epidemic will have little impact on the overall property price, but the next month or two will still be an adjustment period. Volume will remain low. As long as the epidemic does not worsen further, we are confident that general residential property prices will rise by 0 to 3% this year, and luxury properties will rise by 3% to 5%. The property prices of two- to three-bedroom residential units below 10 million yuan will still perform well.
According to the data of the Valuation Department, the price index of small and medium-sized units of various types of properties fell the most. Type B units (431 to 752 sq. ft. saleable area) did not rise or fall month-on-month. As for the C-type units with a saleable area of 753 to 1,075 sq. ft. at 345.9 points, down 0.87 points month-on-month, the D and E large units with a saleable area of 1,076 square feet or above reported 326 points, down 1.33 points month-on-month. The biggest drop.
Mid-sized units performed best last year
However, looking at the full year, all property types saw increases in 2021, with the largest increase in Type C units, up 5.1% year-on-year. In contrast, the smaller units of Type A and B saw year-on-year growth of only 2.65% and 4.17%. According to the industry, this reflects that under the "Lam Cheng PLAN", many purchasing power has changed from buying small units to medium to large units. As for large D and E units of 1,076 square feet or above, the annual increase was 2.45%.
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