2024-05-03 28Hse Editor
The easing of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has led to an increase in the overall construction volume, and the supply of potential first-hand private homes has also increased. The Transport and Housing Bureau announced yesterday that the potential supply of first-hand private homes in the next 3 to 4 years is about 96,000 units, an increase of 3,000 units or 3.22% quarterly. The production of "prepared land" that can be started at any time is driven by the increase of 2,000 units on a quarterly basis. However, the industry believes that due to the lowering of the land supply target, the number of units that can be built in the land sale plan has decreased significantly in recent years, and it is believed that the potential supply will not rise significantly.
Construction of 4,300 units increased by 95% in the previous quarter
According to reports, as of the second quarter, the potential supply of first-hand private homes is expected to be approximately 96,000 units in the next 3 to 4 years, an increase of 3,000 units or 3.22% quarterly. As for the construction volume, it increased by 2,100 units or 95.45% to 4,300 units on a quarterly basis, but it was 40% lower than the 7,200 units in the same period last year. This shows that the construction volume is actually at a low level. In the second quarter, about 6,700 units were completed, an increase of 4,400 units or 191.3% quarter-on-quarter, but only because the base number in the first quarter was too low, it has reached about half of the full-year target of 18,230 units, and it has fallen by about 12% year-on-year.
Chen Haichao, head of Ricacorp Real Estate Research Department, said that the potential increase in the supply of first-hand private homes is mainly due to the continued improvement of the epidemic. Control and overall economic improvement, the construction of private housing in the second half of the year is expected to continue to accelerate.
Liu Jiahui, the chief analyst of Midland Realty, pointed out that the increase in potential supply figures is an important reason for the increase in prepared land projects, and the number of unsold units also increased by 1,000 to 57,000 units quarterly. However, despite the increase in potential supply figures, it has always been affected by the lowering of the land supply target. In recent years, the number of units that can be built in the land sale plan has been significantly reduced. For the past four years from 2017 to 2020, the average monthly average is about 16,400 units. It is believed that even if the construction volume picks up year-on-year this year, it will not be significantly higher than this level. It is expected that the potential supply will not rise significantly in the future.
Ye Wenqi, head of land and housing research at the Unity Hong Kong Fund, also pointed out that there are two details in the data that deserve attention. The number of buildable units approved but not yet started in the second quarter was 27,000 units, which was higher than the 25,000 units in the first quarter. The relevant figures have been increasing year by year since 2018. But at the same time, the number of units under construction in the second quarter was 68,000 units, which was not only lower than the 70,000 units in the first quarter, but also 19% lower than the high of 84,000 units in the second quarter of 2018.
The development cycle of private buildings is getting longer and longer
There are more and more unstarted land, but there are fewer and fewer units under construction, which shows that the development cycle of private buildings is getting longer and longer, which will have a negative impact on the completion volume. The supply in the next few years is not optimistic. Ye Wenqi suggested that all development approval departments adopt "The "performance-based" work model sets annual targets for the number of private residential land grants and unit supply, and then tracks the progress year by year.
A spokesman for the Transport and Housing Bureau pointed out that among the 96,000 units, an estimated 77,000 units are small and medium-sized units with an area of less than 70 square meters (753 square feet), accounting for 80% of the overall supply. It is estimated that in the next few months, 9 residential plots will be converted into reclaimed land, which can provide about 5,700 units. As the government continues to increase housing and land supply in an orderly manner, the bureau believes that the expected supply of private housing in the next three to four years will remain at a relatively high level.
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