(Journalist Ngan Lun Lok)
Yesterday, RVD announced the "Hong Kong Property Report 2020", preliminary predicting the completion of private housing this year to 20,850 units, up 53% year-on-year. However, according to statistics, the project progress would slow down as all the processes are affected by the epidemic. The completion time of some projects may postpone to next year. It is estimated that the number of completions this year will only be about 18,000, which is less nearly 15% than RVD's estimate.
Lau Ka-Fai, the Lead Analyst of Midland, expresses that the number of completion of private housing last year was only 13,640, 33% less than initially predicted. Some projects will be completed this year. However, land supply is expected to remain low in the future, and the rising of completion number will slow down as a result. Besides, the epidemic may affect the completion schedule, delaying the completed dates of some projects that estimated to be completed this year to next year. It is estimated that the number of completions this year will only be about 18,000 units, which is nearly 15% less than the 20,850 units expected by the RVD.
The completion of 18,000 units are less nearly 3,000 units than expectation.
Going through records, from 2004 to the present, fourteen years except 2017 and 2018, which had reached or over the completion target, had significantly lower completion numbers than predicted.
The predicted completions for this year and next year are 20,850 units and 18,920 units. Ip Man-Kei, the head of Land and Housing Research and Hong Kong Fund, bluntly states that this forecast is too optimistic, especially this year, when the epidemic may affect the construction progress of the site. And it is believed the actual completion may not reach the target.
It might not be possible that the completion would be up to 18,900 units next year.
Besides, 94% and 93% of the units completed in 2020 and 2021 are expected to be units below 100 square meters. This proportion had increased year by year from 83% in 2015. The actual supply of private buildings is worse if calculated by floor area instead of by the number of units.
Also, the smaller and smaller house area brings a negative impact on the average living space per person and livability. The vacancy rate has dropped from 4.3% to 3.7% at the end of last year, which also reflects the tighter supply in the private property market.
