(By Lai ChiTin, Ngan LunLok)
The year of the pig is coming to an end. The property market in 2019 of the pig year rose first and softened after, and this trend was similar to the dog year. The CCL was 170.39 points on February 4, 2019, at the beginning of the year of the pig, then rose to 190.48 points in the middle of the year. While CCL fell to the latest 175.88 points on January 17, 2020, from the peak of 190.48 points, because all levels of the economy and the property market were affected by the deterioration of the trade war and the amendment crisis in the second half of the year. However, as the property market rose rapidly at the beginning of the year of the pig, the property market in the pig year was still 3.2% higher than that in the stock market.
The Sino US trade war, which had lasted for nearly half a year, improved for a while at the beginning of the pig year, leading the accumulated purchasing power to release, thus the property market had rebounded and booming in the first half of the year. However, in the second half of the year, the outbreak of violence incidents triggered by the amendment crisis and the continued trade war between China and the United States brought about a reversal of the market situation. The Government announced to relax the mortgage insurance measures, and the United States had decreased interest rates three times, supporting the property market. Thus the trading in pig year was better than that in the dog year.
The first-hand property transactions increased by 12% to 18,689 cases.
According to data synthesized from Land Registry by Midland Property Data and Research Center, the first-hand private houses registered in the pig year (as of December 28th in the lunar calendar year, hereinafter inclusive) were 18,689 cases, and the number of the second-hand housing registration is 40,290 in the same period. The Lead Analyst of Midland, Lau Ka-fai points out that, the first-hand private housing registrations in the year of the pig rose about 12% by year compared with that in the year of the dog of 16,688 cases; As for the second-hand property, the housing registrations rose about 3.5% by year.
The sq ft price in Whampoa Garden rose by 10.4%, the highest.
According to data provided by Centaline Property, both property prices and transactions had declined in the second half of the year compared with the dog year. But the property prices in ten leading housing estates in pig year still rose. And eight among ten indexing housing estates rose. Among them, Whampoa Garden rose as the highest, increasing 10.4% to an average sq ft price of HKD16,882 in the pig year, followed by City One in Sha Tin, which also increased by nearly 10% per year, and Kingswood Villas increased by 7.7% annually. Kornhill Gardens and South Horizons recorded declines of 4% and 6.9% respectively per year.
The total transactions of the ten leading housing estates were 2,194 in the year of the pig, higher 8.8% than 2,016 cases in the dog year. 7 in 10 housing estates rose. Laguna City and Taikoo Shing have the most significant increases, by annual 37.9% and 31%, respectively. Kornhill Gardens and South Horizons also increased by more than 20%, respectively. In the year of the pig, the transactions of Mei Foo Sun Chuen, Whampoa Garden, and Kingswood Villas had decreased slightly by about 1% to 5.6%, respectively.
We will wait and see the development of the epidemic at the beginning of the rat year.
Looking ahead to the property market in the rat year, the United States has cut interest rates by three times in the year of the pig, with 0.75% in total. Hong Kong also followed the interest rates reduced by 0.125% at the end of October last year. It is estimated Hong Kong may maintain a super low-interest-rate environment for some time to come. In terms of local property market policies, the Government announced in the Policy Address on October 16 last year to relax the mortgage insurance restrictions for the first housing. After that, the transactions in the property market rose. More first housing buyers and customers want to change houses, took advantage of the above policies to enter the market, and the circulation in the second-hand property market gradually recovered. The booming market appeared in the second quarter.
The Sino-US trade war, which had lasted for more than half a year, reached the first phase of the agreement, and the relationship between China and the United States eased. The Hang Seng index increased 28,000 points, stimulating buyers' desire to enter the market. However, the social movement in Hong Kong, which has lasted for more than half a year, showed signs of easing at the end of the year, and there was no large-scale violent conflict. All of the above factors will be positive for the steady increase in property trading in the year of the rat, but we need to wait and see the development of pneumonia in Wuhan.
