Hong Kong Wen Wei Po News (By Yan Lunle)
The pig year will coming soon, and in the past dog year, the property market eventually turned from rising to falling. The Centa City Leading Index (CCL) that was latest announced had been up for two weeks in a row, but the range was slightly in only 0.4%. Current latest CCL is 170.86, which fell 0.43% comparing with 171.59 registered on 18th February (The first week of dog year), with the rising in the whole year is offset. The property market in pig year will due the international events like Sino-us trade war and the Brexit etc,.
Hong Kong Wen Wei Po compared the latest CCL index with that on February 18 last year according to data supplied by Centaline Property, and found 7 indexes among 8 had been fallen in the dog year, with the New Territories East Property Price Index fell the most up to 3.18% from 182.04 in about one year ago to the latest 176.26, which was the worst among the 8 indexes in each district. The rest of Hong Kong Island and Kowloon fell by 0.25% and 0.72% respectively. The New Territories West property price index was holding up by 0.72 % in dog year.
The sq ft price in City One declined the most in 12%.
The dog year is also a year of decline for both small and medium size units and large units, which are down 0.64% and 0.66% respectively. As for the performance of individual blue chip projects, the average sq ft price of Whampoa Garden rose the highest in 14.39%, while the sq ft price in City One declined the most in 11.56%, according to data from Centaline Property.
Looking ahead, a number of international events are worth noting in the coming months, such as Brexit in the end of march, and the 90-days truce deadline of Sino-us trade war will expire in March. Chinese and American officials had been negotiating for two days recently, which was reported has "Significant progress", but market participants believed that the structural problems in Sino-us trade war will not be easy to solve, and the trade and technology disputes between the two countries are expected to continue in the future.
Property price is expected to fall 3.8% annually as the economic is in downturn.
Residential property price is expected to fall further in 2019 as Hong Kong stocks weaken, interest rates rise and mortgage costs fall, combined with slower economic growth in 2019, Colliers International pointed yesterday in Hong Kong Property Market Research Report in the Fourth Quarter 2018. The company expected residential property prices falling which started in the middle of last year will continue until the middle of next year, and will rise in the second half of 2019, with the whole year in down range of 3.8%. As the rental market demand is stable, the rent will be relatively stable. Housing supply over the next five years could reach the government's target of 18,000 units per year, the company predicted.
Trade war moderates and interest rate slows down have positive effect.
In the beginning of the year, the mortgage cases are ideal showing boom market appeared in advance, the Chief Vice President of mReferral Mortgage Brokerage, Liu Yuanyuan pointed. While the pricing in second hand property market reduces moderately also has positive effect to the property market development and more potential units for sale would be released if the negotiation space between buyer and seller enlarges. Looking ahead to the next few months, the trade war appears to be easing and the rate hike process will slow down, which are also expected to be positive for the overall economic and housing environment.
The latest CCL is 170.86, up 0.13% by week. After the People's Bank of China announced to reduce deposit reserve ratio, three whole indexes had rose for 2 weeks, which firstly appeared in 26 weeks, after the announcing of "Carrie Lam Cheng Six Housing Measures", the Senior Co-director of Research Department of Centaline Property, Huang Liangsheng pointed. Among them, the decline of CCL narrowed significantly two weeks ago, and then had rose for two consecutive weeks, with the cumulative rise of 0.4%.
The CCL has been hovering in a narrow range around 170 points for the past three weeks, without any further decline, and showing signs of stable, he pointed. The property price will possible be stable if the CCL can stay around 170 points in the next few weeks.