2024-05-06 28Hse Editor
The Chief Executive’s announcement of his policy address earlier this month has clarified the outlook for the Hong Kong property market. Midland Realty conducted online questionnaire surveys before and after the announcement of the policy address. The survey results show that the proportion of respondents who believe that property prices are "steady to rising" has risen from 51% in the previous report to 60% after the report, a 9% increase. And because the government stated that it will focus on the development of the northern metropolitan area, 47% of the respondents are optimistic about the prospects of the New Territories, which is the highest among the three districts. The bank is optimistic about the market outlook and expects property prices to continue to rise by 2% to 3% in the fourth quarter. reporter Yan Lunle
Midland Realty conducted online questionnaire surveys before and after the announcement of the policy address. The two periods were "September 24-27" and "October 8-10". A total of 558 and 487 valid questionnaires were received. When asked about "Hong Kong's property price trend in the next 6 months", 51% of the respondents believed that property prices were "steady to rise" before the announcement of the policy address. After the report was published, the proportion rose to 60%, which is higher than the previous survey 9 percentage points, reflecting that respondents are more optimistic about the prospects of the property market after the policy address.
The concept of "Northern Metropolis" is influential
Bu Shaoming, Chief Executive of Midland Realty's Residential Department, said that 47% of the respondents were most optimistic about the prospects of the New Territories after the announcement of the policy address. As for Kowloon and Hong Kong, they accounted for about 21% and 20%, respectively. The government's latest "Northern Metropolis" concept has an immediate impact on the property market and the mentality of prospective buyers. It is worth noting that only 12% are not optimistic about the overall property market.
In addition, the data searched online also reflect that New Territories properties are becoming more and more popular with the public. According to the official website of Midland Realty, if the 12 days before and after the announcement of the policy address (i.e. September 25 to October 6 and October 7 to 18) are compared, citizens searching for housing estates in the "New Territories" will be The 12 days before the announcement accounted for 49% of the overall search volume, which increased sharply to 60% on the 12 days after the announcement, an increase of 11 percentage points. During the period, the proportion of searches in Hong Kong Island and Kowloon dropped from 23% and 28% to 18% and 22%.
If broken down by individual regions, the search percentages in Yuen Long, Tuen Mun, Hung Shui Kiu and Tai Po have increased the most significantly during the same period. The proportion of searches on the official website in the 4 districts has increased from approximately 10%, 13%, 5%, and 7% to approximately 13%, 16%, 7%, and 10%, respectively. At the same time, trading has turned well after the policy address. Based on the information of Midland Branch, a total of 60 transactions were recorded in 35 large housing estates in Hong Kong in the past week (October 11 to October 17), a sharp increase from 27 transactions in the previous week (October 4 to October 10) Over 1.2 times, and hit a 4-week high.
Tuen Mun Kwu Tung and Yuen Long have high appreciation potential
Zhang Zicun, Chief Operating Officer of Midland Realty's Residential Division, pointed out that after the policy address, the Northwest New Territories continued to increase in traffic. The New Territories property market will continue to be popular and runWin the market, and are optimistic about Tuen Mun, Kwu Tung, Yuen Long City Centre, Hung Shui Kiu, Fanling and Sheung Shui. It is expected that there is also considerable potential for property appreciation in the above areas.
The potential supply of new disks this season is as high as 9,400 units
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the bank expects that the total number of potential supply units for new developments will be about 9,400 units, with Yuen Long and Tin Shui Wai having the most supply, involving about 1,759 units; followed by Tseung Kwan O, accounting for about 1,556 units; followed by Sha Tin District, occupying about 1,401 units. The above-mentioned area will be the focus area of the property market in the fourth quarter. Bu Shaoming said that the prospect of the property market is clear, and the pace of launch is accelerated. It is expected that the sales volume of new properties in the fourth quarter will exceed 5,000 units, which will increase by 20% quarter-to-quarter and hit a new high in nearly 10 quarters. In the whole year, the first-hand transaction is expected to reach 18,000 units, which is an increase of nearly 25% year-on-year.
As for second-hand, it is expected to record about 12,000 transactions in the fourth quarter. In response to the recent slow release of second-hand transactions, the forecast for the number of transactions for the year has been lowered from the original estimate of 67,700 to more than 60,000, but it is still rising year-on-year Over 20%, and hit a 9-year high. Property prices are expected to rise steadily. The latest "Midland Property Price Index" reported at 174.35 points. The index has risen by 6.65% so far this year. It is estimated that property prices will rise by about 10% throughout the year, that is, property prices are expected to rise again at current levels. 2% to 3%.
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