The epidemic hits property prices

2020-10-31( Sat )

Affected by the third wave of the local epidemic in July, some second-hand property owners sold properties at a big price in the third quarter, resulting in a drop in property prices, and also caused bank employees who adopted high-volume mortgages and some property owners with new 90% mortgage insurance plans to fall into negative equity Boundaries. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced yesterday that at the end of the third quarter of this year, the number of negative-equity residential mortgage loans increased by 72 quarter-on-quarter to 199, an increase of 56.7%. The amount of negative-equity residential mortgage loans involved increased by 58.8% quarter-to-quarter, from 727 million HKD at the end of the second quarter to 1.155 billion HKD at the end of the third quarter. The amount of the unsecured portion increased to 33 million yuan, an increase of 50 quarterly %. The industry predicts that there are still signs of deterioration in the number of unemployed people and the overall economy in Hong Kong, and there may be room for downward adjustments in property prices, which will increase the number of negative equity cases. ■Hong Kong Wen Wei Po reporter Liang Yueqin

Cao Deming, chief vice president of Meridian Mortgage Referral, said that the new crown pneumonia epidemic has been raging for nearly a year and has hit the world and the economy of Hong Kong. The unemployment rate in Hong Kong has risen to 6.4% and hit a 16-year high. Many industries are facing layoffs and even bankruptcies. Recently, the epidemic situation is beginning to dawn, but it is expected that the economic situation will not improve in one hour or three. According to the latest data from the Meridian Mortgage Referral Research Department and the Rating and Valuation Department, the private residential price index in the third quarter recorded an average of 382.9 points, a decrease of 0.5 points or 0.1% quarter-to-quarter, and a decrease of 4.8 points or 1.2 compared to the same period last year. %, but on a monthly basis, the private residential property price index in September increased by 1.6 points or 0.4% month-on-month.

Meridian: Property prices have room for downward adjustment

He believes that the new mortgage policy has supported the increase in second-hand transactions, and developers have accelerated the pace of sales, so that property prices have remained stable, and the number of negative equity cases has not seen a significant rise. However, economic problems will continue to emerge in the future, and the government has no plan to launch the third phase of theIt is expected that the number of unemployed persons and the overall economy are still deteriorating. By then, property prices may have room for downward adjustments, which will increase the number of negative equity.

Centaline Mortgage’s managing director Wang Meifeng said that in July, under the third wave of the epidemic, property prices in the third quarter fell by about 6% compared to last year’s high after a slight adjustment in July. This resulted in a number of high-percentage mortgage bank staff cases and some newly constructed cases. Mortgage owners fell into the negative equity boundary. She expects that the accelerated pace of new real estate sales in the fourth quarter will boost the atmosphere in the property market. If the epidemic continues to be contained, property prices will have a chance to get rid of the narrow ups and downs and rebound slightly, driving the negative equity figures in the fourth quarter to fall at the current low level. Fall back again.

Centaline: The risk of negative equity remains low

Wang Meifeng continued that since the government relaxed mortgage insurance in mid-October last year, the utilization rate of 80% or more mortgage cases has increased. The relaxation of mortgage insurance has helped buyers get on the car. Due to the increase in mortgage cases, the market share of mortgage insurance has also increased. If there is an adjustment in property prices and a decline of more than 10%, the number of negative equity cases will increase significantly. However, she expects that the trend of property prices will be relatively stable. According to the statistics of the HKMA, the latest average mortgage ratio is only about 57%, which is obvious This is lower than about 63% to 64% before the measure, and there is currently no negative equity loan with a default of more than 3 months, reflecting that the risk of negative equity is still low.

However, she reminded that the latest unemployment rate has risen to a 16-year high of 6.4%, which should maintain the continuous contribution ability for the first weight of negative equity. Therefore, buyers should first measure the stability of the contribution ability and account for the contribution before entering the market. It is better to set the interest rate at a lower healthy level.