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Hong Kong Property Prices Are Expected to Rise Next Year.

Liao Wai-keung The President of Ricacorp Properties

Hong Kong people have been bothered by local housing problems, and continued rising property prices in recent a few decades of years derives more and more social grievances, so the issue of high property prices has become one of the deep contradictions in Hong Kong. Many people think that the current life index is far behind the change in property prices, and they like to quote data to prove this point. They use the salary in the past comparison of the current year's property prices and then compare today's salary with today's property prices. The author thinks this comparison does not fully reflect reality. Because the position and starting salary of an ordinary citizen must be the most basic when he/she just graduates and starts to work, while the housing opportunity and ability will naturally increase after he/she has several years of experience when his/her performance and ability can definitely be improved.

The economy is hard to rebound.

In the past few years, the Government has been striving to introduce different housing policies and hopes to solve the housing problem of the public, and the government's current real estate administration has clearly separated the housing into two markets, one is the public and subsidized housing market, and the other is the private property market. What is urgently needed to be faced by the Government is how to put resources on public housing as soon as possible, speeding up the construction of public housing and solving the housing needs of the grassroots-level citizens; Secondly, it is increasing the quota for subsidized housing so that some capable citizens can easy to buy their first houses. In addition, in the private property market, the Government should minimize the intervention and give the market greater freedom to enable the capable citizens to purchase suitable properties in the private housing market in response to their own abilities.

At present, the social movement has taken place for more than five months. It has seriously affected the economy of Hong Kong. Some people are worried about the future of Hong Kong and their confidence has begun to waver. At the same time, Hong Kong's GDP has experienced negative growth, and all walks of life have suffered major shocks and difficulties in operations. If the social movement continues, the damage to Hong Kong will only be deeper. It is expected that the economy of Hong Kong will not be able to improve next year.

Although society is unstable, the author believes that there will still be a possibility for property prices to rise next year, mainly for the following reasons:

The first phase of the Sino-US trade war has the possibility to reach an agreement, which is conducive to the market atmosphere;
Many countries around the world maintain quantitative easing policies, and a large amount of funds need to find a way out;
The simultaneous interest rate cuts in the United States and Hong Kong will help Hong Kong maintain an ultra-low interest rate environment;
The Government has clearly divided the residential property market into two markets, and will concentrate and increase resources in public and subsidized housing, striving for priority processing te demand of grassroots public housing, while the supply for private housing will be reduced in the future, so the Government may also reduce the Market interventions to allow the market to develop healthily;
Relaxation of the mortgage insurance plan for first housing has released several times of purchasing power into the property market;
It is expected that social movements will not last long. It is believed publics consumer sentiment will increase, and mainland visitors and investors will once again re-enter the property market if the society returns to normal;
Hong Kong people react very quickly and are very forgetful, and their repressive rebound will be very urgent;
Even if the society is unstable, the funds of Hong Kong people have not been greatly evaporated, and bank savings deposits are still at a very sufficient level;
Although the situation in Hong Kong is now chaotic, other countries are equally chaotic, while there has not seen a large wave of immigration in Hong Kong, since the Hong Kong people who have stayed in Hong Kong still like the "property", and this is enough to support the property market;

The development of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will definitely bring benefits to Hong Kong's economy and provide more opportunities for interaction and cooperation with mainland cities.

■ Titled by the editor. This article is the author's opinion and does not represent this newspaper.
Translated by 28Hse.com . All right reserved.