Centaline expected property price will fall for another half year to a level in middle of last year.
Hong Kong Wen Wei Po (By Li Zhitian)
The Sino-US trade war temporarily ceased, but the pessimism continued spreading in the property market. The latest second-hand property price index was 174.74, which has fallen by more than 6% for 12 consecutive weeks and it is the longest since November 2008, while it fell about 0.49% per week. The second-hand property price adjustment is expected to continue, and it is expected to fall to 160 points in the second quarter of next year and then will keep stable, equivalent to the level in July 2017 when the Government changed, Centaline Research Department expressed.
The latest CCL index is 174.74, down 0.49% per week, and has fallen 6.36% for 12 consecutive weeks, becoming the longest after November 2008, the Senior Associate Director of the Research Department, Huang Liangsheng pointed. CCL Mass declined 0.58% weekly to 176.01, which has fallen 6.84% for 12 consecutive weeks, breaking the record of the longest falling term. CCL (small and medium-sized units) declined 0.57% weekly to 174.36, which has fallen 7.84% for 16 consecutive weeks, breaking the record of the longest falling term.. CCL (large unit) declined 0.09% weekly to 176.65, which has fallen 0.50% for 2 consecutive weeks. The three overall indexes of CCL, CCL Mass and CCL (small and medium-sized units) all fell for 12 weeks, the longest record in history.
New Territories East fell by 11%.
The CCL, CCL Mass, CCL (small and medium-sized units) and CCL (large units) all fell to the level of the March 2018 in period of financial budget plan, Huang Liangsheng also pointed. He predicted property price index CCL will continue falling to 160 points in the second quarter of 2019 then keep stable, which means the price will return to the level when the government changed in July 2017.
The CCL fell after it went to a high level of 188.44 in 15 weeks ago, and it has fallen 7.27% in the past 15 weeks, while CCL Mass has fallen 7.87%, CCL (small and medium-sized units) has fallen 7.79%, and CCL (large units) has fallen 4.57%, Huang Liangsheng expressed. It shows downturn mostly appeared among the small and medium-sized units, while the decline in luxury houses was significantly less. Among the four districts of same period, the property price index in the New Territories East fell up to 10.98%, in New Territories West fell by 7.82%, in Kowloon fell by 8.42% and in Hong Kong Island fell by 5.16%.
There were “three down while one up” among four districts in this week, Huang Liangsheng said. CCL Mass in New Territories East declined 1.93% weekly to 184.74, which has fallen 11.53% for 16 consecutive weeks, breaking the record of the longest falling term in that district. CCL Mass in New Territories West was reported at 156.85, down 0.92% per week, and it has fallen 8.73% for 9 weeks, which in line with the longest record of 9 consecutive weeks in November 2008. CCL Mass in Hong Kong Island declined 0.17% weekly to 182.59, which has fallen 0.78% for 2 consecutive weeks. Kowloon CCL Mass was reported at 172.82, slightly up by 0.01 points per week.
On the other side, the latest Midland property price index was reported at163.67, down about 0.34% by week, and it has fallen about 1.79% comparing to the data of four weeks ago. It has fallen for 11 weeks to a latest lowest in 41 weeks, and it has accumulated fallen about 7.29% to a level in the beginning of March from a higher level of 176.54. Dividing by three districts, the weekly downturn of property price last week in Hong Kong Island was the largest. Midland property price index in Hong Kong Island was latest reported at 179.53 points, down about 1.16% by week, and it also fell about 1.4% comparing to the index of four weeks ago. While it was down about 8.34% comparing to the peak of 195.87 in this year of the same district.
Midland property price index in Kowloon was latest reported at 156.08 points, down about 0.47% by week, and it fell about 1.99% comparing to the index of four weeks ago. While it was down about 7.39% comparing to the peak of 168.53 in this year of the same district. Midland property price index in New Territories was latest reported at 153.32 points, but it still fell about 1.63% comparing to the index of four weeks ago, although it rose about 1.03% by week; It was down about 9.06% comparing to the peak of 168.59 in this year of the same district.