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Potential new market of 92,000 units, new low in more than 4 years

2020-08-01-(Sat)
【28Hse.com】  

Epidemic hinders land expansion and construction this year

The new crown pneumonia is raging, economic activities in Hong Kong have almost come to a halt, and the suspension of government departments has also affected housing construction. According to the latest data released by the Transport and Housing Bureau yesterday, it is estimated that the supply of first-hand private residential units in the next 3 to 4 years will fall to 92,000 units, a quarterly decrease of 3,000 units, and the figure has fallen to a new low in more than 4 years. Although the number of completions has risen quarterly, a total of about 11,400 units were completed in the first half of the year. However, some analysts believe that the epidemic will affect the progress of the project. The final completion volume for the year is expected to be about 18,000 units, which is lower than the 20,000 units predicted by the Department of Estimates.

■Hong Kong Wen Wei Po reporter Li Zitian

A spokesman for the Transport and Housing Bureau pointed out yesterday that based on the latest projections at the end of June, the supply of primary private homes in the next three to four years will be about 92,000 units, a decrease of 3,000 units from the first quarter. Among the 92,000 units, there are 11,000 units of cargo tail units, 61,000 units of units under construction but not sold, and 20,000 units of units that can be constructed on the granted land (prepared land) at any time.

Small and medium-sized units account for 80% of the total

Among the potential supply of units in the future, it is estimated that 72,900 units will be small and medium-sized units with an area of less than 753 square feet, accounting for about 80% of the overall supply, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous quarter.

The authorities expect that 5 residential plots will be converted into reclaimed land in the next few months, providing about 4,100 units. As the government continues to increase housing land supply in an orderly manner, it is believed that the supply of private housing is expected to remain at a relatively high level.

Mr. Ye Wenqi, head of land and housing research at the Unity Hong Kong Fund, said that more and more private housing estates sold in recent years have come from poorly supported land. It is expected that the average development cycle of private housing projects will increase from the current four and a half years to 8 years in 2024. year,It is estimated that in the next five years (2020-2024), the number of private homes completed will average about 16,000 units per year, or 80,000 units in 5 years, which is less than the 92,000 units predicted by the bureau.

8,100 units constructed in the first half of the year

In terms of construction volume, there were only 900 units in the first quarter of this year. In the second quarter, the construction volume increased by 7 times to 7,200 units, bringing it to 8,100 units in the first half of the year. Liu Jiahui, chief analyst of Midland Realty, pointed out that in the past two years, the number of units that can be built in the land sale plan has decreased significantly. The average annual number of units in 2018/19 and 2019/20 is about 13,300. It is believed that the annual construction volume will not increase significantly. Moreover, the recent outbreak of the epidemic has more or less affected construction. Therefore, it is estimated that the annual construction volume this year will not reach the level of 18,000 units, which is lower than in the past two years.

The number of completions has also risen quarterly. In the second quarter of this year, 7,600 units were recorded, which has more than doubled quarterly. In the first half of the year, a total of approximately 11,400 units were completed. Liu Jiahui believes that the epidemic is expected to affect the progress of the project. I believe that some projects that were originally estimated to be completed this year will be postponed until next year. It is expected that the annual completion volume will eventually be about 18,000 units, which is lower than the 20,854 units predicted by the Department of Estimates.

Knight Frank expects economic downturn to depress property prices

Knight Frank Executive Director Lin Haowen said that due to social movements and the epidemic, the low transaction volume and slow sales of first-hand properties are also reasonable. He estimated that this year's housing supply, construction volume, and completion volume will be difficult to meet the standards. The reason is that the number of amendments in the second half of last year has continued to decline, coupled with factors such as the epidemic, economic recession, and Sino-US and Sino-UK relations. Due to the lack of supply or completions, property prices will be pushed up. The current economic downturn is always affecting purchasing power.

Zhang Qiaochu, managing director of Hongliang Consulting and Evaluation, said that the latest decline in the potential supply of private housing is related to the government's allocation of land for public housing development. He believes that the annual private housing supply target of 12,900 units in the next 10 years is not enough. Estimated 1 year There were 20,000 transactions, and the second-hand market was in the worst condition with 3,000 transactions per month. The 50,000 to 60,000 private property transactions throughout the year could not escape. Therefore, the potential supply of 92,000 units was insufficient to meet demand.

Zhang Qiaochu believes that the government should ensure the overall supply and the speed of construction. Under the global quantitative easing environment, private housing prices will not fall and will continue to rise. Therefore, support for public housing development must be accelerated, such as joining private construction projects. , The material can be accelerated by half the speed.

Zhang added that the government is having difficulty finding land, and the plot ratio in the urban area has been "exhausted" and it is difficult to further relax it. It is believed that the long-term supply of private properties will decline.

Translated by 28Hse.com . All right reserved.