Buyers wait and see; New HOS potential buyers may become “savior”.
Hong Kong Wen Wei Po (By Yan Lunle&Li Zhitian)
Property market has adjusted rapidly in recent months. The market was full of wait-and-see atmosphere, dragging down the transaction volume in the past few months. Land Registry yesterday publish the latest transaction registers, which was 3,953 cases in November, down about 26.4% comparing to 5,374 cases in October, becoming the latest lowest in 32 months since from March 2016. First hand private property among had the largest decline, which was 729 cases in November falling from 2,357 cases in October with a down range of nearly 70%, and this is the major reason causing property market transaction sharply decline in within this month. Look ahead to registrations in December which will be announced next month, market participant expected transaction will slightly rise to 4,000 cases benefiting of potential buyers from new HOS.
The property market has been buffeted by a number of negative factor in the past few months. A number of indicators have shown that the property market has undergone significant adjustments in trading and prices. According to the data from Land Registry, property transaction has fell from a peak of 6,713 cases in this June to 2,635 cases in November. Property registrations recorded a total of 3,953 cases in November, down about 26.4% from 5,374 cases in October. For the first time since March 2016, the total number of property registrations dropped to a level under 4,000 cases, breaking a latest lowest record in 32 months.
The overall registration fell by 26% to a latest lowest in 32 months.
Lead analyst from Midland Realty, Liu Jiahui pointed, new project actual sales in October decreased, also second hand residential transactions continued depression, dragging the whole registration in November down to a level under 4000 cases. In view of the time it takes to sign an agreement for sale and submit to the Land Registry, above registration cases reflect the market situation in October.
Liu Jiahui analyzed, looking back on the cases registered in November, according to Midland Realty’s data and research center’s data synthesized from Land Registry, first hand private property transaction registration was 729 cases (not include first hand public housing), sharply down about 69.1% by month comparing to 2,357 cases in October.
As for the second hand market, the number of registered stopped falling after decline for 5 months. Second hand residential property registrations rose about 5.2% from 1,957 cases in October to 2,058 cases in November. Nevertheless, it still failed to offset the sharp drop of first hand private property registration in same period. Second hand transaction continued downturn, reflecting citizen’s housing intend decreased, which made transaction among ten large projects has fell for 7 months.
Centaline Property: Transaction in ten large blue chip projects was the latest lowest in 23 years.
Most notable is, Centaline made statistics the data from Land Registry and found, the second hand transaction from ten large blue chip projects in November was 87 cases in total value of HKD 664 million, which were respectively down 13.9% and 13% comparing to 101 cases in total value of HKD 763 million in October, and the number firstly down to a level under 100 cases which even less than the lowest in October, making a historical lowest record in 23 years since January 1996 when there was record, while the amount made the latest lowest record in two and a half year since March 2016 when there was HKD 629 million.
About industrial and commercial shops, parking place and other non residential property registration, there was new project on sale and brought large amount of transactions, driving the whole class of this property rising about 10.6% by month to 1,157 cases in November. But actually, the market of commercial unit, shops and parking place was still dull by month.
Ricacorp: Trade war pause; Transaction in this month is estimated steady.
Head of Research Department of Ricacorp, Chen Haichao pointed, with a temporary ceasefire in the sino-us trade war, plus the market expected interest rate rising would slow down in the future, also some new HOS potential buyers will turn to the market helping the whole market recovery, so the transaction and registration may slowly turn steady in this month if sellers provide some bargaining space, in particular, the second hand property market is expected to take the lead. It is predicted the whole property sales registration will stop falling and go steady to a level of 4,000 cases.