Investigation reveals that citizens are looking down on the outlook of the property market
The Hong Kong Wenhui News (intern reporter Qiu Xiaoyang) announced that the US Federal Reserve Bank raised the interest rate by 0.25 percent yesterday. Together with this round, the interest rate increase cycle has cumulatively increased interest rates seven times, totaling 1.75%. However, local banks have not yet followed. Although some market participants are concerned about the risk of “additional interest” to local banks, the survey conducted by the Zhongyuan Mortgage Entrustment of the Hong Kong University’s Civilian Research Program shows that citizens are already feeling numb about raising interest rates and are optimistic about the property market. According to the survey, even if the interest rate rises, 70% of the respondents who want to purchase their own homes are unwilling to decline in the market, 72% think that property prices will not fall, and 47% think that property prices will continue to rise.
The survey conducted by the University of Hong Kong’s public opinion research project took place from June 4 to June 7. Of the 1,011 people surveyed, 394 were interested in home ownership. Among them, 65% indicated that home ownership is not intended to change due to interest rate hike in Hong Kong. Together with 5% intentional home buyers increasing their interest rates under the interest rate increase, a total of 70% of homebuyers intending to raise interest rates in Hong Kong will enter the market. Undiminished. On the contrary, only 27% of prospective home buyers will reduce their desire for home ownership because of the interest rate hike in Hong Kong.
Only 14% expected property prices to fall
When asked if Hong Kong follows the trend of property prices before the end of this year after the interest rate hike, 724 of the 724 interviewees did not consider property prices to fall after refusing to respond. Among them, 47% believe that property prices will continue to rise. (21.8% believe that property prices have risen more than 5%, and 25.6% believe that property prices still rise within 5% before the end of the year). Compared with 14% of respondents, Hong Kong property prices will fall due to interest rate hikes, and the ratio is obviously disparity. On the other hand, 15% of the public believe that they are "knowing/hard to tell" about the prospect of property prices.
Wang Meifeng, managing director of China Mortgage Mortgage Brokers, pointed out that the survey reflects the general acceptance of theInterest, optimistic about the outlook for property prices, has little effect on their desire to buy property. At the same time, Hong Kong’s pace of future interest rate hikes is expected to be mild, the economic and employment environment will be favorable, and the building’s measures will help increase the defensive power of bank and mortgage building owners. It is believed that the public are generally ready to raise interest rates. The single interest rate factor has little effect on the property market.
At least raise interest rates twice to see impact
Coincidentally, a similar survey conducted by Hong Kong Property yesterday after the Fed announced an interest rate hike also found that 55.3%, ie 218 respondents, believe that Hong Kong banks will raise interest rates in the next 12 months, but at the same time there are 34.3%. About 135 respondents believe that they can accept an increase of less than 9%, and another 65.7% of respondents can accept a hike of half or more. Hong Kong-based Chief Executive Li Zhicheng also believes that Hong Kong's market has already digested expectations of rate hikes. Most citizens have sufficient ability to resist interest rate hikes. If the rate of increase in interest rates is 0.25%, Hong Kong banks will raise interest rates at least twice, starting with some citizens. As a result, it is expected that pressure will be raised in the second half of the year.
Although both surveys have shown that raising interest rates does not affect the confidence of most people in the property market, some people in the banking industry have reminded that it is only a matter of time before Hong Kong Bank raises the prime rate (P). If Hong Kong Bank raises interest rates with the United States, or The property market plays a repressive role. Yang Yuxi, chief economist of ANZ Greater China, said that the current upward trend of Hong Kong dollar interest rates is already very clear, and the best interest rate should be adjusted soon. However, as the best lending rate has not risen following the Fed’s rate hike, the timing, magnitude, and frequency of adjustments are difficult to predict. In the long run, he believes that Hong Kong's first interest rate hike in the future will not have much impact on property prices. The second time the interest rate hike will affect the interest rate cycle and will have a positive effect on property prices.
Supply rose to adjust pressure
Xie Guoliang, director of economic and policy research at BOCHK, believes that if Hong Kong does not follow the Fed to raise interest rates, there will be risk of asset bubbles in the asset market. Hong Kong's interest rate hike is conducive to the development of the asset market, making the economy more healthy, and it can also help suppress property prices. Xie Guoliang also stated that whether the rate hike will cause a major adjustment in the property market depends on other factors, especially the relationship between supply and demand. He pointed out that the market expects the rate hike cycle will continue until 2020. If Hong Kong housing supply rises significantly during this period, property prices will face greater challenges and pressure.
Property prices in Hong Kong have continued to hit new heights since 2018. According to the statistics from the Bureau of Estimates, the private residential property price index in Hong Kong rose by 1.84 per cent in April. It rose 25 consecutive months and hit a new high for 18 consecutive months. It increased 25 months. 38.5%.