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[Odds] approaching the interest rate increase if the interest rate 1%


The industry next year, the average interest rate of 2.5% advocated to relax the pressure test

Hong Kong Wen Wei Po Daily News (Reporter Su Hongqiang) Federal Reserve's interest statement is expected next year and next year after another three-rate hike, Hong Kong's banking industry is expected the fastest first half of next year raised the prime rate (P), the annual increase in interest rates 0.5% To 0.75%. Monthly cumulative contributions for people in the service sector rose by 6% to 9%. With a loan of $ 4 million and a repayment term of 25 years, the monthly interest rate increase of 0.75% will increase by about $ 1,500. The burden is still not heavy. However, when the cumulative rate hike of 1% or above is more significant, the monthly contribution will be increased by about 10%. Therefore, the industry suggests that the Government should raise the ceiling of the property price of 90% of the mortgage loans from $ 4 million to $ 6 million so that "boarding passengers" are not forced to go to "nano-projects."

The mortgage industry is expected to see modest increases in the interest rates of Hong Kong next year. Coupled with the tight floor control measures, the psychological impact on the property market will be more than expected. It is expected that Hong Kong will still enjoy a low interest rate environment in the next few years. With a loan amount of $ 4 million and a loan term of 25 years (see table), each additional 0.25% increase in monthly contribution by about 500% or 3%. Under the measures taken by the building to enhance defense, the impact on owners is still limited.

DSR level health hard hit the owner

Central Plains mortgage brokerage managing director Wang Meifeng said yesterday that the Fed's interest rate statement to maintain the expected rate hike next year a total of 3 times, reflecting the pace of interest rate increases next year to maintain a gentle and orderly; next year is expected to Hong Kong prime rate (P) increase or range 0.5 The average annual interest rate is still at 2.5%, much lower than the average interest rate of 3.63% over the past 20 years. Taking the 25-year contribution period as an example, if the interest rate increases, every 0.25% increase at interest rate, the monthly contributions will increase by about 3% and the cumulative increase by 6% or 9% before the end of the year will affect the mortgage repayment burden Still minor. according toIn the semi-annual report issued by the HKMA in September, mortgage applicants' contribution to income ratio (DSR) averaged only 34% and their defensiveness was very high. If interest rates rise next year, the above contributions will account for the ratio of income to total assets before the end of the year Rose to 36% to 37%, still a healthy low level. In the meantime, Hong Kong is still in a low interest rate environment in the coming years under the linked exchange rate system because of the limited increase in interest rates expected.

Full-term interest expense or increase 370,000

However, another reminder from the mortgage industry suggests that in the long run, interest rate increases will greatly increase interest expense over the period. She said that if Hong Kong hiked interest rates twice a year at 0.25% each time, the actual interest rate would increase from 2.15% at the current ceiling to 2.65%. Based on the loan amount of $ 1 million, the monthly contribution (at 30 years Mortgage) will increase from $ 3,772 to $ 4,030, an increase of 258 or 6.8% over the 30-year interest expense from $ 357,795 to $ 450,700. Expenses soared by $ 92,905, an increase of 26.0%. By 4 million yuan, the full period of interest increased 371,600 yuan.

Meridian Mortgage referral market director Liu Yuan said that in recent months, the inter-bank interest rate (HIBOR) approached 1.1%, the highest post-2008 financial tsunami to the market generally available for H + 1.3% of the mortgage plan, H Has hit a ceiling of 2.15% lock, H by P and the interest margin advantage has disappeared. Wang Meifeng also predicted that when the bank officially raised the prime rate, I believe H will be further expanded by the interest rate difference with P and the advantage of using H will be greatly reduced. P Bank will push the user to press P, so next year, according to the proportion of H will be down.

Centaline Asia Pacific Vice President and Housing Minister Chen Yongjie believes that higher interest rates will not hinder the property market in Hong Kong rally, I believe Hong Kong will need to accumulate plus 1% more significant impact. However, it is expected that the United States will not be able to raise interest rates by 1% during the year as the economic growth slows and the pace of rate hikes slows down in 2018; the funds will continue to flow to the property market in Hong Kong, which is especially beneficial to luxury properties. He predicts that there will be a small spring after the Lunar New Year next year. The CCL in the first quarter of next year is expected to rise to 173 points.

Pressure measured sad car buyers Baked buy real estate

He also pointed out that at present, only $ 4 million or below can apply for a 90% mortgage loan. However, property prices have risen 17% during the year. Few such projects have been put into operation. Coupled with the pressure of mortgage construction, Test, the passenger car home buyers will be harder. It is suggested that the government raise the ceiling of the property price for a 90% mortgage loan from $ 4 million to $ 6 million so as to avoid the need for boarding passengers to buy a "nano-floor" for the purpose of accommodating 90% of the mortgage.

Translated by 28Hse.com . All right reserved.