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Interest rate increase soon, pressure of buying property increase

2017-12-14-(Thu)
【28Hse.com】  

Minimum income synchronization up to full ammunition free tart set

Hong Kong Wen Wei Po Daily News (Reporter Yan Lun) The U.S. announced the result of a resumption of trading this morning. The market is expected to see a 0.25% chance of a rate hike next year and a further interest rate increase of 1% next year, so Hong Kong can not but follow the interest rate hike. The market estimates that Hong Kong will raise interest rates by one or two rates next year, each at 0.25% or 0.5%. The actual interest rate will rise to 2.4% or 2.65% by the end of next year. The industry is of the opinion that since interest rates in Hong Kong are still low, a monthly increase of 0.25% for every $ 1 million loan amount will increase by about $ 128. This will not be a big burden, but reminds borrowers to pay attention to the stress tests of banks to borrow 360 Million yuan, 0.25% rate hike, the minimum income requirement will need to increase about 2.5%.

The industry claims that there is ample capital in Hong Kong. At present, there are still about 179.7 billion HKD left in the balance of the banking system. The chance of following the rate hike by the United States this time is slim. We expect the second quarter of next year to have a surplus when the balance falls to less than $ 100 billion Pressure pressure. It is generally expected that next year Hong Kong will raise interest rates twice or twice each time, ranging from 0.25% or 0.5% to an end to the situation of not raising interest rates in the 12 years since 2006.

69% of citizens do not want to change their home ownership

In the face of the interest rate hike, the Central Plains Mortgage Brokers commissioned the University of Hong Kong's Opinion Research Program in December to conduct a "public survey on the local property market, interest rate and home ownership sentiment." Of the 1,029 people interviewed, 368 were homeowners. 69% of them said that their home ownership will not change as the U.S. interest rate hike changes from December last year (63%) and June this year (67%). Type surveys are high, reflecting that more and more people are starting to accept rate hikes. On the contrary, only 21% of those who are interested in home ownership will reduce their desire to buy home because of interest rate hikes in the United States.

Central Plains mortgage brokers managing director WangMeifeng yesterday pointed out that the rate hike in the United States is within the expectation of the market and that the timetable for rate hike is more transparent than before and that the interest rate hike in Hong Kong is modest. Therefore, the interest rate hike has little effect on the desire of home buyers. However, she reminded members of the public to pay attention to the stress test. The presumed interest rate of the stress test rose 3%. If Hong Kong officially entered the rate hike cycle with the United States later on, the interest rate will increase accordingly. Theoretically, the hypothetical rate hike should be To make a reduction is more reasonable, or borrowers will be more difficult to pass the stress test.

For example, she said that the borrower is preparing to buy a unit of 6 million HKD and plans to apply for a 60% mortgage loan at a monthly loan of 3.6 million HKD at a monthly rate of 2.15% and a 25-year interest rate Is 35,600 yuan. If the rate hike by 0.25% and the stress testing guideline is not adjusted, the minimum monthly income requirement will rise to $ 36,500. For each 0.25% increase in interest rate, the minimum income requirement will need to be increased by about 2.5% to pass the stress test.

Pay attention to measure the income adjustment

In the recent market, many cases of tardiness have been reported. It is learned that it is partly because the bank failed to test its stress tests and was unable to "go there" to be forced to make a decision.

Meridian Mortgage Referral Marketing Director Liu Yuanyuan said yesterday that the United States will have a very big chance to raise interest rates this trip. It plans to raise its interest rates three or four times next year. Coupled with the tax reform and "downsizing" plan in the United States, the U.S. assets will gradually flow back to the Mainland. Hong Kong has the pressure to drain funds. In fact, the balance of the banking system in Hong Kong reached a peak of $ 426.6 billion in October 2015 and slowly dropped to the present $ 179.7 billion, indicating that Hong Kong funds are flowing out of the banking system.

The property market next year up to 10%

Liu Yuanyuan believes that it is inevitable that the rate hike in Hong Kong will be avoided under the joint exchange system. However, I believe it will not adjust the prime rate (P) as soon as the first half of next year and put an end to the situation of not raising interest rates in the 12 years since 2006. However, even if the rate hike is expected to be gradual in Hong Kong, it will have a minor impact on the property market. The property market will maintain its upward trend next year, but the rate of increase will slow down due to the rate hike. The figure will rise 5% to 10% for the whole year.


Translated by 28Hse.com . All right reserved.